NFL Week 11 picks

This is the condensed version of picks for the NFL Week 11 games for Winners and Whiners between:

Pittsburgh at Jacksonville
Kansas City vs. Los Angeles Rams

Week 10 Review:

It is amazing watching one play completely undo your picks. In the Dallas-Philadelphia play Sunday night, that 3rd-and-15 screen pass to Michael Gallup for 25 yards when the Cowboys led 6-3 changed everything. If the Eagles make a stop there, the Cowboys punt and the Eagles likely run out the clock. I had the Cowboys under 8.5 points in the first half, the Cowboys under 18.5 points, the Eagles giving 6.5 points, and the overall under. And all four picks came undone with the ripple effects after that conversion.

All things considered, though, to finish above .500 after hitting 75 percent in Week 9 is acceptable. There were also a lot of ugly games in terms of betting, and there was some comeuppance (hello, New England and the Jacksonville-Indianapolis under).

Note: Monday’s picks will move late morning/early afternoon Monday after the “Bank the Bet” podcast in which Scott Steehn and I break down the titanic, humongous, incredible, not-to-be missed, gargantuan and epic possible Super Bowl preview between the Chiefs and Rams. So give a listen!

Thursday, Nov. 15

Green Bay at Seattle — Over 49.5 points (3/5) — WIN!

Sunday, Nov. 18

Pittsburgh at Jacksonville:

Pittsburgh at Jacksonville Full Game: Steelers -5.5 (5/5)
Pittsburgh at Jacksonville Over/Under: Under 47 points (4/5)
Pittsburgh at Jacksonville: Jaguars Under 20.5 points (3/5)
Pittsburgh at Jacksonville: 1st Half: Steelers -3 (3/5)
Pittsburgh at Jacksonville: 1st Half Over/Under: Over 23.5 points (3/5)
Pittsburgh at Jacksonville: 1st Half Prop:

Cincinnati at Baltimore —
Tampa Bay at New York Giants — Under 52 points (3/5)
Houston at Washington — Texans -3 (5/5)
Dallas at Atlanta —
Tennessee at Indianapolis —
Carolina at Detroit — Panthers -4.5 (4/5)
Denver at Los Angeles Chargers — Chargers -4.5 1st Half (3/5)
Oakland at Arizona — Under 40.5 points (3/5)
Philadelphia at New Orleans — Saints -5 1st Half (3/5)
Minnesota at Chicago —

Monday, Nov. 19

Kansas City vs. Los Angeles Rams

Kansas City vs. Los Angeles Rams Full Game:
Kansas City vs. Los Angeles Rams Over/Under:
Kansas City vs. Los Angeles Rams:
Kansas City vs. Los Angeles Rams 1st Half:
Kansas City vs. Los Angeles Rams 1st Half Over/Under:
Kansas City vs. Los Angeles Rams 1st Half Prop:

Previous Week’s Record: 12-11-1 (.521)
Season Record: 101-94-1 (.518)

1-Star Pick Record: 0-0 (.000)          Season (0-0, .000)
2-Star Pick Record: 0-0 (.000)          Season (0-0, .000)
3-Star Pick Record: 8-9-1 (.472)       Season (72-62-1, .537)
4-Star Pick Record: 2-1 (.667)          Season (13-19, .406)
5-Star Pick Record: 2-1 (.667)           Season (15-13, .536)

NFL Week 10 Picks (UPDATES with Monday Night Football!)

Week 9 Review: (Cue Lou Gehrig microphone echo)… “Today, I consider myself, the luckiest man on the face of the earth.” Yep, it was that good. Did I get few breaks? Oh absolutely. Zuerlein’s bomb at the end of the first half in the Rams-Saints game was one. Denver’s missed field goal against Houston was another, especially since I had a 5/5 confidence rating on it. Sometimes you come out lucky, sometimes not so much. I’m sure there is a disaster waiting to be unfurled between now and the end of the season. Hell, it might even be this week. But still, onto the games!

Thursday, Nov. 8

Carolina at Pittsburgh: Over 9.5 points 1st Quarter (3/5) — WIN!

Sunday, Nov. 11

New Orleans at Cincinnati — Over 27 points first half (5/5) — WIN!
Atlanta at Cleveland — Falcons over 14.5 points 1H (3/5) — LOSS!
Jacksonville at Indianapolis — Under 47 points (3/5) — LOSS!
Detroit at Chicago — Over 44 points (4/5) — WIN!
Arizona at Kansas City — Chiefs -10 1H (3/5) — WIN!
New England at Tennessee — Patriots -3.5 1H (3/5) — LOSS!
Washington at Tampa Bay — Under 50.5 points (3/5) — WIN!
Buffalo at New York Jets — Jets -7 (3/5) — LOSS!
Los Angeles Chargers at Oakland — Under 49.5 points (3/5) — WIN!
Miami at Green Bay — Packers -3 1st Quarter (3/5) — WIN!
Seattle at Los Angeles Rams — Seahawks +9.5 (3/5) — WIN!

Dallas at Philadelphia:

Dallas at Philadelphia Full Game: Eagles -6.5 (4/5) — LOSS!
Dallas at Philadelphia Over/Under: Under 43.5 points (3/5) — LOSS!
Dallas at Philadelphia Full Prop: Cowboys under 18.5 points (3/5) — LOSS!
Dallas at Philadelphia 1st Half: Eagles -4 (3/5) — LOSS!
Dallas at Philadelphia 1st Half Over/Under: Under 21.5 points (3/5) — WIN!
Dallas at Philadelphia 1st Half Prop: Cowboys Under 8.5 points (5/5) — LOSS!

Monday, Nov. 12

New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers:

New York Giants at San Francisco Full Game: Giants +3.5 (3/5) — WIN!
New York Giants at San Francisco Over/Under: Under 45 points (3/5) — LOSS!
New York Giants at San Francisco Full Prop: 49ers Under 24.5 points (5/5) — WIN!
New York Giants at San Francisco 1st Half: 49ers -2.5 (4/5) — WIN!
New York Giants at San Francisco 1st Half Over/Under: Under 23 points (3/5) — PUSH!
New York Giants at San Francisco 1st Half Prop: 1st Quarter Under 7.5 points (3/5) — LOSS!

Previous Week’s Record: 12-11-1 (.521)
Season Record: 101-94-1 (.518)

1-Star Pick Record: 0-0 (.000)          Season (0-0, .000)
2-Star Pick Record: 0-0 (.000)          Season (0-0, .000)
3-Star Pick Record: 8-9-1 (.472)       Season (72-62-1, .537)
4-Star Pick Record: 2-1 (.667)          Season (13-19, .406)
5-Star Pick Record: 2-1 (.667)           Season (15-13, .536)

NFL Picks — Week 9 (UPDATED WITH MONDAY NIGHT PICKS !)

This is the condensed version of picks for the NFL Week 9 games for Winners and Whiners between:

Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks
Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints
Tennessee Titans at Dallas Cowboys

Week 8 Review: Rock early, suck late. Just one of those things that happens when you get overly excited and see little things go against you (I’m looking at you, Ryan Fitzpatrick ripping apart the Bengals secondary for a backdoor cover despite Cincinnati being plus-4 in turnover margin). I went to the Jets-Bears game and was fascinated with the vanilla offenses both teams used. For the Jets, I kind of understand it given Sam Darnold is a rookie and it is still important to have him make the throws he knows he can make. I was a little surprised the Bears did not open the offense more for Trubisky, but it was also a game they did not need him to win it for them, but to simply manage it, and he did that well. The Monday night game brought some respectability back for full game, though trusting Tom Brady in the first half proved to be problematic.

Note: Monday’s picks will move late morning/early afternoon Monday after the “Bank the Bet” podcast in which Scott Steehn and I break down the picks a little further. So give a listen! And don’t forget to make like Cher and turn back time.

Thursday, Nov. 1

Oakland at San Francisco: 49ers 1st Half over 11.5 points (3/5) — WIN!

Sunday, Nov. 4

Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks:

Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks: Seahawks -2 (3/5) — LOSS!
Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks Over/Under: Over 47.5 points (3/5) — LOSS!
Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks Full Prop: Lockett TD+Seahawks win +275 (3/5) — LOSS!
Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks 1st Half: Chargers +0.5 points (3/5) — WIN!
Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks 1st Half Over/Under: Over 23.5 points (4/5) — WIN!
Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks 1st Half Prop: Seahawks Over 12.5 points (5/5) — LOSS!

Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints:

Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints: Saints -2 (3/5) — WIN!
Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints Over/Under: Over 59.5 points (3/5) — WIN!
Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints Full Prop: Saints over 28.5 points (4/5) — WIN!
Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints 1st Half: Saints +0.5 points (3/5) — WIN!
Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints 1st Half Over/Under: Over 29 points (3/5) — WIN!
Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints 1st Half Prop: Rams Over 15.5 points (5/5) — WIN!

Tampa Bay at Carolina — Carolina -6.5 (3/5) — WIN!
Kansas City at Cleveland — Kansas City -9 (4/5) — WIN!
New York Jets at Miami — Over 44 points (3/5) — LOSS!
Pittsburgh at Baltimore — Under 47 points (3/5) — WIN!
Chicago at Buffalo — Bears -6.5 1st Half (3/5) — WIN!
Detroit at Minnesota — Minnesota -6 (3/5) — WIN!
Atlanta at Washington — Over 48 points (3/5) — WIN!
Houston at Denver — Houston +1 (5/5) — WIN!
Green Bay at New England — Under 57 points (3/5) — WIN!

Monday, Nov. 5

Tennessee Titans at Dallas Cowboys:

Tennessee Titans at Dallas Cowboys: Cowboys -5 (3/5) — LOSS!
Tennessee Titans at Dallas Cowboys Over/Under: Over 40.5 points (5/5) — WIN!
Tennessee Titans at Dallas Cowboys Full Prop: Amari Cooper over 48.5 receiving yards (4/5) — WIN!
Tennessee Titans at Dallas Cowboys 1st Half: Cowboys -3 (3/5) — LOSS!
Tennessee Titans at Dallas Cowboys 1st Half Over/Under: Over 20 points (3/5) — WIN!
Tennessee Titans at Dallas Cowboys 1st Half Prop: Cowboys -0.5 1Q (3/5) — WIN!

Previous Week’s Record: 21-7 (.750)
Season Record: 89-83 (.517)

1-Star Pick Record: 0-0 (.000)          Season (0-0, .000)
2-Star Pick Record: 0-0 (.000)          Season (0-0, .000)
3-Star Pick Record: 14-6 (.700)        Season (64-53, .547)
4-Star Pick Record: 4-0 (1.000)        Season (11-18, .379)
5-Star Pick Record: 3-1 (.750)          Season (13-12, .500)

Week 8 NFL Picks (UPDATED WITH PICKS FOR THE MONDAY NIGHT GAME!)

This is the condensed version of picks for the NFL Week 8 game for Winners and Whiners between:

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills:

Week 7 Review: And it was going all so well until Monday night, when it all came undone like a cheap suit thanks to the suddenly potent pass rushes of both teams. That angered me about missing the over. Then, once the Falcons went ahead 23-12, the Murphy’s Law of the worst possible betting outcomes came through as the Giants not only scored a touchdown, but then converted the two-point conversion to ruin the spread pick. Aside from that game, almost everything else about Week 7 went well.

Three of the losses felt like one-offs: Watching the Chargers blow a seven-point lead as the Titans ran the ball during their two-minute drill was maddening, the Eagles’ self-inflicted Heimlich against Carolina was puzzling, and the Chiefs’ decision to do the gentlemanly thing and call four running plays inside the Bengals 10 while up 45-10 to ruin the over was aggravating. But that overlooks the good, helped by Justin Tucker’s wide-eyed miss of an extra point, the Patriots being favored by less than a touchdown, and the Lions taking the Dolphins behind the woodshed.

Then again, if I didn’t have something to complain about every week, how would I entertain you? Onto the picks!

Thursday, Oct. 25

Miami at Houston: Texans -7.5 (3/5) — WIN!

Sunday, Oct. 28

Philadelphia vs. Jacksonville (Wembley Stadium in London) Eagles -3.5 (3/5) — WIN!
Washington at New York Giants — Redskins -1.5 (3/5) — WIN!
Seattle at Detroit — Seahawks +3 (3/5) — WIN!
Cleveland at Pittsburgh — Over 48.5 points (3/5) — WIN!
Denver at Kansas City — Chiefs -6.5 1st Half (5/5) — LOSS!
Tampa Bay at Cincinnati — Bengals -4 (3/5) — LOSS!
Baltimore at Carolina — Under 44 points (4/5) — LOSS!
New York Jets at Chicago — Jets +9.5 (3/5) — LOSS! 
Indianapolis at Oakland — Colts Over 13.5 points 1st Half (3/5) — LOSS!
San Francisco at Arizona — Over 41.5 points (4/5) — LOSS!
Green Bay at Los Angeles Rams — Rams -6 1st Half (5/5) — LOSS!
New Orleans at Minnesota — Over 54 points (3/5) — LOSS! 

Monday, Oct. 29

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills:

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills: Patriots -14 (3/5) — WIN!
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills Over/Under: Under 44.5 points (3/5) — WIN!
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills Full Prop: Bills Under 15.5 points (4/5) — WIN!
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills 1st Half: Patriots -7.5 (5/5) — LOSS!
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills 1st Half Over/Under: Over 22.5 points (3/5) — LOSS!
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills 1st Half Prop: Over 7.5 points 1Q (3/5) — LOSS!

Previous Week’s Record: 8-11 (.421)
Season Record: 68-76 (.472)

1-Star Pick Record: 0-0 (.000)          Season (0-0, .000)
2-Star Pick Record: 0-0 (.000)          Season (0-0, .000)
3-Star Pick Record: 7-6 (.538)          Season (50-47, .515)
4-Star Pick Record: 1-2 (.333)          Season (7-18, .280)
5-Star Pick Record: 0-3 (.000)          Season (10-11, .476)

 

Week 7 NFL Picks — October 21 (UPDATED WITH MONDAY NIGHT PICKS!)

This is the condensed version of picks for the NFL Week 7 games for Winners and Whiners between:

Tennessee Titans vs. Los Angeles Chargers and New York Giants vs. Atlanta Falcons:

Picks for Sunday’s games have been made, and Monday’s picks will be updated during Monday afternoon after a final update of the preview.

Thursday night review: To take page from the great cartoon, Anamaniacs, it’s time for another “Good Idea, Bad Idea.” Good Idea — Taking the under for Josh Rosen passing yards against a Broncos defense with a point to prove. Bad Idea — Not putting cause and correlation together to take the Broncos giving the road point in what was a stomping in the desert. Duh.

Week 6 Review: Hey, it was a good week! About the only miss that irritated me was the over/under on the Jaguars/Cowboys as Dallas erupted offensively. I did weep a silent tear when New England kicked that field goal to go up 40-33 against Kansas City because it ensured there would be no way the Patriots would cover that 3.5 number in regulation, even with the false hope of Rob Gronkowski nearly breaking that tackle that set up the game-winning field goal. Oh well.

Thursday, Oct. 18

Denver at Arizona — Cardinals +1 (3/5) — LOSS!
Josh Rosen Under 220.5 yards (3/5) — WIN!

Sunday, Oct. 21

Tennessee vs. Los Angeles Chargers (Wembley Stadium in London)

Tennessee vs. Los Angeles Chargers: Chargers -6.5 (4/5) — LOSS!
Tennessee vs. Los Angeles Chargers Over/Under: Under 45.5 (3/5) — WIN!
Tennessee vs. Los Angeles Chargers Full Prop: Gordon TD and Chargers win (3/5) — NO BET!
Tennessee vs. Los Angeles Chargers 1st half: Chargers -3.5 (5/5) — WIN!
Tennessee vs. Los Angeles Chargers 1st half Over/Under: Under 22.5 (3/5) — WIN!
Tennessee vs. Los Angeles Chargers 1st half Prop: Chargers over 13.5 (3/5) — LOSS!

Detroit at Miami — Lions Over 24.5 (3/5) — WIN!
Houston at Jacksonville — Texans +4.5 (3/5) — WIN!
Buffalo at Indianapolis — Under 43 (3/5) — WIN!
New England at Chicago — Patriots -2 (5/5) — WIN!
Minnesota at New York Jets — Over 46 (4/5) — WIN!
Cleveland at Tampa Bay — Over 24.5 1H (3/5) — LOSS!
Carolina at Philadelphia — Eagles -5 (3/5) — LOSS!
New Orleans at Baltimore — Saints +3 (3/5) — WIN!
Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco — Rams Over 16.5 1H (5/5) — WIN!
Dallas at Washington — Washington +1.5 (3/5) — WIN!
Cincinnati at Kansas City — Over 58.5 (4/5) — LOSS!

Monday, Oct. 22

New York Giants at Atlanta

New York Giants vs. Atlanta Falcons: Falcons -4 (4/5) — LOSS!
New York Giants vs. Atlanta Falcons Over/Under: Over 52.5 points (3/5) — LOSS! 
New York Giants vs. Atlanta Falcons Full Prop: Barkley longest rush over 25.5 yards (3/5) — LOSS!
New York Giants vs. Atlanta Falcons 1st Half: Falcons -3 (3/5) — WIN!
New York Giants vs. Atlanta Falcons 1st Half Over/Under: Over 26.5 (3/5) — LOSS!
New York Giants vs. Atlanta Falcons 1st Half Prop: Falcons Over 16 1H (5/5) — LOSS! 

Previous Week’s Record: 13-11 (.542)
Season Record: 60-65 (.480)

1-Star Pick Record: 0-0 (.000)          Season (0-0, .000)
2-Star Pick Record: 0-0 (.000)          Season (0-0, .000)
3-Star Pick Record: 9-7 (.563)          Season (43-41, .512)
4-Star Pick Record: 1-3 (.250)          Season (6-16, .273)
5-Star Pick Record: 3-1 (.750)          Season (10-8, .556)

Week 6 NFL Picks — Oct. 14 (UPDATED!!)

This is the condensed version of picks for the NFL Week 6 game for Winners and Whiners between:

Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots:

There will also be an expanded selection of Sunday picks posted at some point after Thursday’s Eagles-Giants game and before the kickoff of Sunday’s early games.

Week 5 Review: Suck early, rally late. That’s the best way I can describe it. After splitting the expanded picks in the early games with the Panthers-Giants and Broncos-Jets (Note: I would like to sarcastically thank Ron Rivera for his play-calling that helped the Giants rally to cover in the second half after having that game in hand), I managed to lose every single-game pick for the early games (Also, a sarcastic thank you to Joe Flacco’s eyebrow for losing at Cleveland).

Then, there was a miraculous recovery in the late session, with every pick hitting except the Arizona-San Francisco game due to a touchdown with 1:29 left to send the game to the over. Accordingly, C.J. Beathard is off my Christmas card list. Onward to the picks!

Thursday, Oct. 11

Philadelphia at New York Giants — Ertz TD + Eagles win (3/5) — WIN!
Eagles -3 (3/5) — WIN!

Sunday, Oct. 14

Tampa Bay at Atlanta — Falcons -3 (3/5) — WIN!
Chicago at Miami — Over 41.5 points (4/5) — WIN!
Buffalo at Houston — Texans Under 24.5 points (3/5) — WIN!
Los Angeles Chargers at Cleveland — Los Angeles Chargers +1.5 (3/5) — WIN!
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati — Bengals -1 (3/5) — LOSS!
Carolina at Washington — McCaffrey TD + Panthers win (3/5) — LOSS!
Seattle at Oakland — Seahawks -2.5 (5/5) — WIN!
Indianapolis at New York Jets — Over 47.5 points (3/5) — WIN!
Arizona at Minnesota —  Vikings -10.5 (3/5) — LOSS!
Los Angeles Rams at Denver — Rams 1H Over 14.5 points (5/5) — LOSS!
Jacksonville at Dallas — Under 40 points (3/5) — LOSS!
Baltimore at Tennessee — Under 42 points (3/5) — WIN!

Kansas City at New England

Kansas City at New England: Patriots -3.5 (3/5) — LOSS!
Kansas City at New England Over/Under: Over 59.5 points (3/5) — WIN!
Kansas City at New England Full Prop: Over 6.5 total TDs (4/5) — WIN!
Kansas City at New England 1st half: Patriots -2.5 (3/5) — WIN!
Kansas City at New England 1st half Over/Under: Over 29.5 points (3/5) — WIN!
Kansas City at New England 1st half Prop: Patriots Over 16.5 1H points (5/5) — WIN!

Monday, Oct. 15

San Francisco at Green Bay — Under 47 points (4/5)

Previous Week’s Record: 15-5 (.750)/14-6 (.700)
Season Record: 48-52 (.480)/47-53 (.470)

1-Star Pick Record: 0-0 (.000)          Season (0-0, .000)
2-Star Pick Record: 0-0 (.000)          Season (0-0, .000)
3-Star Pick Record: 10-4 (.714)        Season (34-33, .453)
4-Star Pick Record: 2-0 (1.000)        Season (5-12, .200)
5-Star Pick Record: 2-1 (.667)          Season (8-7, .533)

 

 

NFL Week 4 Picks — Free For All Special

These are the condensed versions of picks for the NFL Week 2 games between the Detroit Lions and San Francisco 49ers, and New England Patriots and Jacksonville Jaguars for Winners and Whiners. Confidence rating is in parentheses. Note: The 5/5 does not represent the best overall pick of the day’s games, simply the best pick of each individual game.

Writer’s Note: I do not have any games specifically assigned to me this week since I am partaking in some personal frivolity this upcoming weekend. But it also gives me the chance to try something new, which is to make one pick from each game and assign a value in which 11 picks will be 3/5, two will be 4/5 and two will be 5/5. If it goes well enough (read as: I don’t crap the bed like I did in Weeks 1 and 2), I’ll carry it through the season.

So thank you for reading!

Week 3 Review: Thanks, Minnesota. No really, thanks. The other two games, though, were fairly straight forward. The only thing Travis Kelce failed to do in the Chiefs win was catch a touchdown pass to make that prop bet hit, and that the teams took their sweet time in starting that journey to 65 points. As for Cowboys-Seahawks, those six winning picks out of six have been framed as a reminder that every now and then, I drink I’m smart and I know things.

That said, onto the Week 4 picks!

Thursday, Sept. 27

Minnesota at Los Angeles Rams — Vikings +6.5 (3/5)

Sunday, Sept. 30

New York Jets at Jacksonville Jaguars — Under 38.5 (4/5)
Cincinnati at Atlanta — Bengals +5 (3/5)
Tampa Bay at Chicago — Bears -3 (3/5)
Detroit at Dallas — Under 43.5 (5/5)
Buffalo at Green Bay — Bills +10 (3/5)
Houston at Indianapolis — Under 47 (4/5)
Miami at New England — Patriots -7 (5/5)
Philadelphia at Tennessee — Eagles -4 (3/5)
Cleveland at Oakland — Under 45 (3/5)
New Orleans at New York Giants — Saints -3.5 (3/5)
San Francisco at Los Angeles Chargers — Under 46.5 (3/5)
Baltimore at Pittsburgh — Ravens +3 (3/5)

Monday, Oct. 1

Kansas City at Denver — Chiefs -5 (3/5)

Previous Week’s Record: 11-7 (.611)
Season Record: 13-23 (.361)

1-Star Pick Record: 0-0 (.000)          Season (0-0, .000)
2-Star Pick Record: 0-0 (.000)          Season (0-0, .000)
3-Star Pick Record: 8-4 (.667)          Season (10-12, .454)
4-Star Pick Record: 1-2 (.333)          Season (1-7, .143)
5-Star Pick Record: 2-1 (.667)          Season (2-4, .333)