Sept. 6 MLB Picks and Preview — New York Yankees (92-49) at Boston Red Sox (75-65)

(Domingo German photo courtesy Andy Marlin/USA TODAY Sports)

This is the full preview(s) as seen on the Winners and Whiners and Stat Salt websites. The confidence rating for all picks on a scale from 1 to 5 is in parentheses.

Note: The 5/5 does NOT represent the best overall pick of the day’s games when there are multiple games, simply the best pick(s) from each individual game.

When and Where: Friday, Sept. 6, Fenway Park, Boston, Mass., 7:10 p.m. EDT.

Domingo German looks to become the first 18-game winner in the majors and maybe divert some of the AL Cy Young Award talk away from Houston as the New York Yankees have the chance to put the death knell on the Boston Red Sox’s playoff chances this weekend, starting with Friday’s series opener.

German looking for eighth win in decisions since All-Star break

German (17-3, 4.01 ERA) is tied for the AL lead in wins with Justin Verlander and Boston’s Eduardo Rodriguez, but with the Yankees backing him with 7.96 runs per start — which would be second in the majors if he threw enough innings to qualify — and a 4.00-plus ERA, many view the right-hander as a good pitcher being helped out by a great offense.

German made one mistake in five innings versus Oakland on Saturday, serving up a two-run homer to Matt Chapman. He wound up not factoring in the decision of New York’s 4-3, 11-inning victory. It was the ninth straight start the right-hander has allowed a homer, giving him 29 in just 132 1-3 innings.

German has had mixed yet successful results over three starts against the Red Sox this season, winning two while posting a 4.50 ERA as the Yankees have given him 18 runs to work with. The righty had his best outing in the most recent matchup Aug. 3, holding Boston to two runs in seven innings of a 9-2 triumph.

He also won his lone start at Fenway on July 28, giving up three runs in 5 1-3 innings of a 9-6 win. Andrew Benintendi has given German fits, going 5 for 9 with a pair of home runs.

Chacin to lead bullpen day for BoSox with Price scratched

Boston’s flagging wild-card hopes were not helped any when scheduled starter David Price (7-5, 4.28) was scratched Friday due to tightness in his throwing wrist. The left-hander, who had come off the disabled list to make a start Saturday after missing a month because of his wrist, was also 0-3 with a 7.88 ERA in six starts since the All-Star break.

“David after the bullpen yesterday, he felt a little bit tight with his wrist,” Red Sox manager Alex Cora said. “He saw a specialist yesterday, and he’s not going to start (Saturday). It’s not as bad as the first one, but obviously we’re not going to throw him out there just to make a start. The changeup was OK, the cutter was OK yesterday. He pushed hard to pitch, but I was like we’re not going to do this to you. We’ll go with the bullpen.”

Recently signed Jhoulys Chacin (NR) will make his Red Sox debut and first start since July 24 when he was with the Milwaukee Brewers. The right-hander was released by the Brewers on Aug. 24 after recovering from a lat injury and signed a minor league contract a week later.

Chacin went 3-10 with a 5.79 ERA in 19 starts with the Brewers and went 0-7 with a 6.39 ERA in the last 11, with his last victory coming against Colorado on April 30. His lone two starts against the Yankees came in 2016 while pitching with the Los Angeles Angels, splitting the decisions while allowing five runs and 13 hits in 11 innings.

Also not helping Boston’s playoff chances was the 2-1 loss to Minnesota in the rubber game of its series Thursday night. Mookie Betts accounted for the offense with a solo homer — his third round-tripper in two games — to continue his torrid stretch.

Betts is 13 for 28 with five homers in his last six games but 0 for 10 with three strikeouts lifetime versus German. He has struggled versus the Yankees this season, batting .190 (11 for 58) in 15 games, with all three home runs coming in Boston’s 10-5 win July 26.

Notable Trends

The Red Sox are:

  • 1-6 in their last seven home games vs. teams with an above-.500 road record.
  • 3-8 in their last 11 games vs. AL East teams.
  • 2-7 in their last nine games vs. above-.600 teams.

The Yankees are:

  • 13-0 in German’s last 13 starts vs. AL East teams.
  • 37-17 in their last 54 during game 1 of a series.
  • 13-3 in German’s last 16 starts vs. above-.500 teams.

*****5-Star Pick*****

OVER 10.5 runs (-115)

While the number landed on the high side of expectations, there is little confidence in Chacin being able to step into his first major league start in over six weeks and stare down one of the most imposing offenses in the majors. The over has been trending with the Red Sox in general, going 10-4 in their last 14 divisional matchups and 20-8 in their last 28 contests coming off a loss.

The over has trended well in this series, going 9-2 in the last 11 games and 13-3-2 in the last 18 at Fenway. It is also 4-0 in German’s last four starts versus AL East teams and 10-4-1 in his last 15 on the road.

****4-Star Pick****

Yankees -1.5 runs (+121)

With Price scratched, and Chacin the front man in the Red Sox bullpen day, the Yankees are the pick with the expectation they should get out to a lead early and roll. Their success against division rivals when German pitches — he is 10-0 with a 3.29 ERA in 11 starts against the AL East this year — coupled with Boston being a flat-track bully that has struggled with winning teams all season makes this an easy pick.

Yankees OVER 5.5 runs (-105)

Another anti-Chacin pick in this instance coupled with how games between the teams tend to turn into slugfests. The Yankees have scored five or more runs in 12 of their 15 games versus the Red Sox and have plated six or more on seven occasions. New York has also scored six or more runs in 19 of its 30 road games against divisional rivals.

OVER 5.5 runs first 5 innings (-121)

The five-inning over is 7-0-1 in the last eight games between the teams and also has delivered in all three of German’s outings this season. Chacin making his first start in six weeks adds to the confidence of there being enough runs to go around in the first few innings with the Yankees returning to divisional play.

***3-Star Picks***

Yankees -0.5 runs first 5 innings (Even)

The Yankees have posted a 9-2 record in the first five innings of German’s last 11 starts and 8-2-2 in their last 12 overall. New York also has led at the midway point in all three of his outings versus Boston. Though the Red Sox are 8-2-1 after five innings in their last 11 overall, they are 3-4-1 in the last eight at Fenway.

Yankees OVER 1.5 runs first 3 innings (-110)

Still rolling against Chacin, the Yankees have plated two or more runs in the first three innings in five of their last six road games and in seven of their last 10 against the Red Sox. Chacin’s early struggles also contribute to this pick, with his best individual earned run average in any of the first three innings a 5.91 mark in the second.

 

 

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