Aug. 17 MLB Preview — Miami Marlins (45-76) at Colorado Rockies (55-67)

(German Marquez photo courtesy Ron Chenoy/USA TODAY Sports)

This is the full preview(s) as seen on the Winners and Whiners and Stat Salt websites. The confidence rating for all picks on a scale from 1 to 5 is in parentheses.

Note: The 5/5 does NOT represent the best overall pick of the day’s games when there are multiple games, simply the best pick(s) from each individual game.

When and Where: Saturday, Aug. 17, Coors Field, Denver, Colo., 8:20 p.m. EDT.

Hector Noesi‘s re-acclimation to the major leagues continues in a challenging venue Saturday night when the Miami Marlins and Colorado Rockies play the middle game of their series at Coors Field.

Noesi struggling to keep ball down after two starts for Marlins

The 32-year-old Noesi (0-2, 8.18) rejuvenated his professional career with three stellar seasons in South Korea, posting a 20-win season in 2017 and going 46-20 with a 3.79 ERA in 90 starts.

The Marlins signed him to a minor-league contract in January, and the right-hander went 11-4 with a 3.82 ERA in 21 starts at Triple-A New Orleans before being called up earlier this month for his first major league action since 2015 while with the Chicago White Sox.

Noesi, though, must improve if he is going to remain on the Marlins for the final six weeks. He has served up four homers in his two starts and yielded 10 runs in 11 innings after being reached for five runs in six innings of a 5-4 defeat to Atlanta on Sunday.

This will be his first career appearance against Colorado.

Marquez looks to run personal winning streak to four games

For the third straight year, German Marquez (11-5, 4.75) has settled into a groove after the All-Star break for the Rockies and enters this match 14-7 with a 3.86 ERA in his last 35 such starts dating back to the 2017 All-Star game.

The right-hander improved to 3-0 with a 3.27 ERA in his last five starts after a solid outing at San Diego on Sunday, shaking off a pair of solo homers in the first three innings to allow one run in the next five of Colorado’s 8-3 triumph.

“Marquez threw the ball well,” manager Bud Black told the Rockies’ official website after Marquez finished with nine strikeouts. “In the middle innings, he really found his breaking ball. They were swinging at balls down below the zone. That tells me they looked like strikes coming out of the hand.

“The fastball was pretty much located in and out, located to a corner. He kept his poise even after the two home runs. … I thought German was outstanding.”

Marquez started his season on a positive note in Miami, conceding a solo homer to Curtis Granderson and one other hit over six innings of Colorado’s 6-1 victory March 29. It was his first win after three losses to the Marlins, which included two last year in which he was reached for nine runs and 15 hits in 9 1-3 innings.

Granderson is 4 for 7 with that homer and five walks lifetime versus Marquez.

Notable Trends

The Rockies are:

  • 9-1 in Marquez’s last 10 starts vs. sub-.500 teams.
  • 5-1 in Marquez’s last six starts vs. NL East teams.
  • 8-3 in Marquez’s last 11 home starts.

The Marlins are:

  • 0-6 in their last six during game 2 of a series.
  • 1-4 in their last five Saturday games.
  • 8-20 in their last 28 games vs. right-handed starters.

*****5-Star Pick*****

OVER 6.5 runs first 5 innings (-121)

Both opponents have put up five-spots in Noesi’s two starts, which bodes well for this contest being played at Coors. After being held in check by Sandy Alcantara on Friday night, the expectation is the Rockies are able to bounce back and deliver the five-inning over for the ninth time in 13 games.

The over is also 8-1 in the last nine games at Coors Field when set below seven runs, so you may want to lock in this one before a potential jump higher.

****4-Star Pick****

Rockies OVER 7 runs (-121)

It is a big number to sell on the over, especially considering the Rockies have cleared seven runs just once in their last 15 games, but the hedge here is they get to Noesi early and often to at least give themselves a fighting chance.

The Marlins have given up seven or more runs in six of their 13 road games since the All-Star break and eight of their last 16 overall.

***3-Star Picks***

Rockies -2.5 runs (-115)

All five games between the teams have had margins of three or more runs, and while there is a sacrifice in confidence for a better return compared to the current -160 on the standard run line, the alternate offering from PointsBet.com is the play.

Marquez’s track record of solid second halves of seasons dovetails nicely with Noesi’s struggles keeping the ball down heading into a start at Coors Field. Miami’s pitchers have been mauled for 22 home runs in their previous seven games, and it does not appear that Noesi will help the Marlins buck that trend.

OVER 12 runs (-110)

It’s always jarring to take the over with a high number until remembering the game is being played at Coors. The over has been strongly trending with the Marlins, going 12-4-2 in their last 18 games and 5-0-1 in their last six during game 2 of a series.

Losing the hook also helps, as this pick is more about the Rockies teeing off on Noesi than it is expecting a slugfest to break out.

Despite his recent run, the over is still trending with Marquez, going 8-2 in his last 10 home starts and riding a seven-game run when he faces sub-.500 opponents. The over has also delivered in five of his last six starts overall.

Rockies -1.5 runs first 5 innings (-105)

This is more of an anti-Noesi pick than pro-Marquez one, but the Rockies are 5-3-4 at the five-inning mark in the right-hander’s 12 home starts. He also held the Marlins to one run in his previous matchup, but did “lose” that contest 1-0 in South Beach.

The Marlins are 1-5-1 at the midway point in their last seven games, and all five times they have trailed, the deficit has been two or more runs. So the aggressive play here is the alternate line compared to the standard half-run at -180.

Rockies OVER 4 runs first 5 innings (-110)

With Noesi wild both in and out of the strike zone — he has six walks and four home runs allowed in 11 innings — the Rockies offense is worth a play here at Coors Field. Charlie Blackmon is hitting .357 with three homers in his last 12 games and Nolan Arenado has four homers in his last five home games after going yard in Friday night’s win.

The Rockies have also plated four or more runs in seven of their last 15 home games while the Marlins have yielded four or more in six of their last 13 on the road.

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