Aug. 10 MLB Preview — Colorado Rockies (52-64) at San Diego Padres (54-61)

(Chris Paddack photo courtesy Jasen Vinlove/USA TODAY Sports)

This is the full preview(s) as seen on the Winners and Whiners and Stat Salt websites. The confidence rating for all picks on a scale from 1 to 5 is in parentheses.

Note: The 5/5 does NOT represent the best overall pick of the day’s games when there are multiple games, simply the best pick(s) from each individual game.

When and Where: Saturday, Aug. 10, Petco Park, San Diego, Calif., 8:40 p.m. EDT.

Rookie Chris Paddack looks to continue his strong pitching at home Saturday night when the San Diego Padres continue their series against the Colorado Rockies.

Gonzalez tries again for first win since 2015

Chi Chi Gonzalez (0-4, 5.95 ERA) has not won a game since his rookie season in 2015, though that span includes a limited amount of appearances. He made only three starts in 2016 and then missed all of the last two seasons after undergoing Tommy John surgery in April 2017 before his initial call-up in late June.

The right-hander is making his first start since July 27, but his relief appearance Tuesday was one to forget as he failed to retire either batter he faced versus Houston, taking the loss in a 13-pitch outing after giving up a homer and a walk to the only two batters he faced.

Gonzalez is 0-3 with a 5.03 ERA in four starts this year, pitching more than five innings on just one occasion. The righty has yielded at least two runs in all of them and has walked 11 in 19 2-3 innings. This will be his first career appearance versus San Diego.

Paddack looking for home cooking after rough outing in LA

The 23-year-old Paddack (7-5, 3.19) has more than held his own in his rookie season as one of the anchors of an extremely young rotation. The right-hander has lost back-to-back starts on only one occasion but is trying to bounce back from an uneven start last time out.

Paddack did not get a decision Sunday in Los Angeles, giving up six runs and six hits in four innings and failing to protect a three-run lead in San Diego’s 11-10 loss to the Dodgers. He also served up a pair of homers, giving him 17 allowed in 104 1-3 innings. The good news is that rate plummets at Petco Park, where he has been taken deep just five times in 47 1-3 innings.

“It’s not what I want it to be,” he told The San Diego-Union Tribune. “… That’s very frustrating. I’m definitely going to go into next start knowing I have some things I have to work on. Maybe getting some guys to chase something out of the zone a little better. The most frustrating part is the 0-2, 1-2 hits.”

Opponents are hitting just .144 against him on two-strike counts, but eight of the 22 hits have been home runs.

The righty has been much tougher at home, going 5-2 with a 2.28 ERA in eight starts and holding opposing hitters to a .163 batting average while striking out 56. Paddack, who will face the Rockies for the first time in his career, has conceded one or no runs in six of his eight outings at Petco.

Notable Trends

The Padres are:

  • 5-1 in Paddack’s last six home starts.
  • 5-2 in Paddack’s last seven starts when opponents allow five or more runs in the previous game.

The Rockies are:

  • 5-17 in their last 22 Saturday games.
  • 3-8 in their last 11 games vs. starters with a sub-1.15 WHIP.
  • 3-13 in their last 16 games vs. NL West opponents.

*****5-Star Pick*****

Padres -1.5 runs (-105)

This looks like a mismatch on paper between Paddack’s home dominance and Gonzalez’s struggles to find traction as a starter at the major league level. The Padres rookie has a 1.98 ERA in his last six home starts and six of the nine runs he has allowed in that stretch came in one bad outing.

Additionally, with this being his first career start against the Rockies, there is all the more reason to believe he can keep them off-balance and deliver a quality start.

****4-Star Pick****

Padres -0.5 runs first 5 innings (-140)

Paddack’s home form plays into this pick, but the fact the Padres are 3-4-1 at the midway point in his starts at Petco prevents seeking out an alternate run line, even with the gap in talent against Gonzalez. The Rockies are 1-3 in his four starts and 1-7-3 in their last 11 on the road, which makes San Diego a solid play.

***3-Star Picks***

OVER 8.5 runs (-115)

The Padres have been thrashing Rockies pitchers of late, totaling 67 runs in the last seven games. While five of those games were at hitter-friendly Coors Field, they have totaled 16 runs in the last two games, and the over is 8-3 in the season series.

The over had a four-game run snapped Friday and is 6-1-1 in San Diego’s last eight at Petco versus sub-.500 teams. Gonzalez does not inspire much confidence in thinking the Rockies will hold down San Diego’s offense, but Paddack will likely make this one a close win for the over.

Rockies UNDER 3.5 runs (-136)

Paddack’s home form plays into this pick, but the low-end hook prevents going hard on this pick. The Padres have allowed two or fewer runs in six of Paddack’s eight starts at home, but the Rockies have scored four of more in eight of the 11 meetings.

OVER 4.5 runs first 5 innings (-125)

This pick is all about the confidence in San Diego’s offense. The five-inning over is 3-5 in Paddack’s home starts, delivering in the last three outings. The under is 2-1-1 in Gonzalez’s four starts, but it all comes down to San Diego’s offense — the five-inning over is 4-2 in the last six home games by scoring three or more runs in each contest.

Padres UNDER 1.5 runs first 5 innings (-105)

A confidence pick in Paddack, who has limited opponents to one or no runs in six of his eight home starts. Colorado also has been held to two or fewer runs in 10 of its last 14 road games, and seeing the Padres rookie for the first time plays into taking a flyer here.

 

 

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