July 14 MLB Preview — San Francisco Giants (42-49) at Milwaukee Brewers (48-45)

(Jhoulys Chacin photo courtesy Benny Sieu/USA TODAY Sports)

When and Where: Sunday, July 14, Miller Park, Milwaukee, Wisc., 2:10 p.m. EDT.

After a miserable first half of the season, Jhoulys Chacin looks to end a personal six-game losing streak Sunday when the Milwaukee Brewers conclude a three-game series against the San Francisco Giants.

Beede out to win back-to-back starts for first time in career

Things appeared to be falling into place for Tyler Beede (2-3, 5.64 ERA) — who will be recalled from Triple-A for this start — before the All-Star break. The rookie right-hander went 2-1 with a 3.22 ERA in four starts and limited opponents to a .207 batting average in those contests.

Both of Beede’s wins came on the road, including one at San Diego on July 2 in which he shook off a second-inning solo homer and conceded only three other hits over a career-best seven innings in a 10-2 victory.

The Giants optioned Beede to the minors after that game as a way of limiting his innings. After originally coming up through the organization as a starter, the Giants tried to convert him to a reliever last year and he pitched 80 innings in all of 2018.

When including seven starts at Triple-A this year, Beede has already logged 79 1-3 innings.

“I want to be out there every fifth day, but I understand,” Beede told the San Francisco Chronicle. “This could be beneficial, having a couple more days to rest out of the break.”

Beede, who has yet to face the Brewers, is 2-1 with a 5.64 ERA in six road starts this year but has been hit or miss in those games. In three outings, he limited teams to one run but gave up four or more in the other three.

Chacin looking to avoid becoming second 10-game loser in NL

Chacin (3-9, 5.40) has already exceeded his total for losses last year when he went 15-8 in helping Milwaukee win the NL Central.

The right-hander is 0-6 with a 5.52 ERA in his last nine starts but also has rarely been in sync with the Brewers offense when he has pitched well. Milwaukee’s run support average of 3.10 runs for Chacin would rank second-worst in the majors if he pitched enough innings to qualify, and the Brewers have backed him with more than two runs only once during his nine-start winless stretch.

That lack of run support was evident in his last outing, a 3-0 loss at Cincinnati on July 3 when he allowed two runs in six-plus innings while striking out eight.

“He did a nice job with his breaking ball and sprinkled in the fastball while featuring the breaking ball,” Brewers manager Craig Counsell noted. “From the third through the sixth he got on a good roll as we’ve seen all year.”

Chacin has conceded three runs in 11 innings in his last two starts, with two runs scoring on solo homers. The righty has pitched slightly better at home than overall, going 2-1 with a 4.25 ERA in six starts.

He is 9-7 with a 3.13 ERA in 20 career starts versus San Francisco, winning his lone matchup last year by limiting the Giants to a solo homer and two other hits in seven innings of a 3-1 victory. Chacin is 4-1 with a 2.38 ERA in his last seven starts against San Francisco since the start of the 2017 season.

Giants catcher Buster Posey is 12 for 34 (.358) with a homer in their matchups, while Pablo Sandoval is 11 for 38 with three homers, three doubles, and a triple.

Notable Trends:

The Brewers are:

  • 0-6 in their last six games vs. right-handed starters.
  • 1-7 in Chacin’s last eight starts.

General:

  • 1-8 in their last nine games when Mark Carlson is plate umpire.

The Giants are:

  • 5-1 in Beede’s last six road starts.
  • 8-1 in their last nine games vs. starters with a plus-1.30 WHIP.
  • 4-1 in Beede’s last five starts.

5-Star Pick!!!!!

Giants OVER 4 runs (-121)

The Giants entered Saturday night’s game averaging (7.2) runs in their last 11 games while scoring four or more runs in nine of those games. Milwaukee had yielded five or more in four straight contests before Saturday night and in six of its last eight.

4-Star Pick!!!!

Giants +0.5 runs first 5 innings (Even)

This is more of an anti-Chacin pick given the Brewers have led after five innings in just three starts this season and trailed in six of his last 10 (2-6-2). Beede has helped the Giants to a lead at the midway point in three of his last four starts, and grabbing an extra half-run at even money adds to the confidence of this pick.

3-Star Picks!!!

Giants (+150)

This has the feel of a toss-up considering Chacin did pitch better in his final two starts before the All-Star break and has a strong recent track record versus the Giants, while Beede has pitched better on the road compared to at home.

The hedge is the extra rest Beede got will pay off with some extra life to his pitches early, and the Giants will be able to get to Chacin. The Brewers came out of the break appearing to be in the same malaise they were in heading into it, and that may be enough for the Giants to sneak out of Milwaukee with a win.

OVER 10 runs (-110)

Though the Giants entered Saturday’s contest with seven wins in nine games, their bullpen still has a 5.45 ERA in that stretch. Milwaukee’s relievers have fared worse, though, posting an 8.71 ERA in its last eight games with 32 runs allowed in 31 innings.

Beede and Chacin have been far from lights out, especially Chacin, and the hedge is the teams will find a way to edge out the over, which entered Saturday’s game 4-0 in San Francisco’s last four road games and 6-0 in its last six on the road against above-.500 teams.

UNDER 5.5 runs first 5 innings (-121)

Despite Chacin’s winless run, he has done well to battle in the early going. The five-inning under is 6-2-1 in those nine starts, and the under also entered Saturday night’s contest 12-1 in Milwaukee’s last 13 games. The under has split in six starts since Beede joined the rotation, including a 3-2 mark on the road. If the hook stays on this number, the under gets the slight lean.

OVER 0.5 runs first inning/YES to 1st inning run (-145)

A “yes” pick to a first-inning run, both pitchers have had their first-inning issues. Beede has a 9.00 ERA in the opening inning, yielding eight runs in as many starts, which includes giving up runs in three of his six road starts.

Chacin has a 6.19 ERA in the first and has been reached for an opening-inning run in three of his last four starts at Miller Park.

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